‘Discovering other’s secrets can be a deadly failing.’ – ancient Chinese saying
There is a major matter which Western analysts are not taking into account. All major analysts appear to treat Russia and China as unconnected parties.
At least at the level of theory, one would expect some to consider the possibility that China and Russia are conducting a joint or collective war. Both Russia and China consider themselves potential war targets, with the US wishing to take on Russia first and then China afterwards.
It should be obvious to Russia and China that they should develop a collective strategy rather than be taken on one-by-one, recognising that they are conducting two fronts of the same war. We all remember Tacitus’s famous comment about the Britons, strong brave and warlike, but who fought seperately and were conquered altogether by the Romans.
What would a collective strategy look like: the US sought a quick win over Russia, to knock out Russia and allow the US to focus on China. There was much open talk in US military circles that the attack on China needed to happen before 2025 i.e. before China had built up its reserves, technology and preparations appropriately. At a collective level, it would then be best for Russia to delay matters, to progress slowly focussing on attrition, to sufficiently prolong matters for China to fully arm itself. I recall a public statement by a senior Chinese leader in the autumn of 2025 that China was ‘now ready’ to face the US. Only after that statement did Russia begin to rapidly escalate its war efforts in Ukraine.
A most important matter is whether to take it for granted, as a given, that the US intended to attack Russia and China. In this light, another collective issue relates to the location of the confrontation. From the US point of view the ideal location of battles will be on other people’s borders. It would be advantageous for China and Russia to have any conflict elsewhere than on their borders.
For the US, the advantage is for their own soldiers to play as little part in their proposed attacks. The US is seeking South Korea and Japan as proxy shock troops. From Russia’s and China’s perspective, relocating the battle to a location where US assets and troops are engaged would be preferable.
It would also be advantageous for China and Russia to be able to attack THE US AT THE SAME TIME, simultaneously.
There is an additional matter here: it is part of the US nuclear war doctrine that any attack on China or Russia must include an attack on the other. It is an objective of the US war strategy that post nuclear war, the other major power should not be left standing in tact. This would replicate the post-WW2 situation where the US was the only industrial power left standing. It is this which invalidates any US offer to diplomatically separate Russia from China. Any suggestion otherwise will just be deception. Any nuclear attack on China implies a nuclear attack on Russia. It now becomes of key strategic importance for them that neither Russia nor China provokes or allows itself to be provoked into a nuclear exchange before the other party is ready and that any nuclear confrontation should be closely coordinated.
There is a culmination of these factors once one looks carefully. The most important factor is to consider whether the war with the US is inevitable. If the war is inevitable, there is no option to avoid it. All that is available is to seek the best situation for such a war to break out. The optimal situation would be a confrontation that meets the following conditions:
- Takes place beyond the borders of China or Russia,
- Allows for joint diplomatic action between China and Russia
- Has major US assets and personnel in the frame of fire
- Physically allows China and Russia to closely coordinate their actions
- It is sufficiently far from the shores of the US for US citizens not to understand why they should be loosing battle fleets full of soldiers and sailors.
For China, one of the consequences of any such confrontation, whereby major US battle ships might be sunk, is that such assets could no longer be used in any future fight with China for the forseeable future.
One area that meets the criteria above is Iran and West Asia.
By launching surprise attacks on Iran, on Putin , on Russia’s nuclear deterrent, the US has given everyone permission to launch a surprise attacks on the US should they so wish. By acting without warning, the US has given everyone else permission to act without warning. By acting with complete insincerity and engaging in profound deception, the US has given everyone else permission to act similarly to the US.
Is the US walking into an ambush of its own willing?